June 11, 2004

By: Alan Delange
Website: http://www.1st-in-cell-phones.com

Multiple-SIM card use and fixed line replacement

Cellular penetration in Australia is poised to reach natural saturation next year, with mobile device proliferation, multiple-SIM card use and fixed line replacement driving subscriptions beyond that point. Eighty-two percent of Australians are expected to own a mobile phone by the end of 2004, with that proportion rising to 89% in 2008, according to IDC's latest study titled, Upwardly Mobile: Australian Cellular 2004-2008 Forecast and Analysis.

Australia's cellular services are expected to grow by 7% this year, generating revenue of $A8.7 billion. Although voice will remain the 'killer app' making up the bulk of carrier revenue, non-voice services will be the major revenue and profitability growth powerhouse and the primary battleground for the next five years, said Warren Chaisatien, IDC Australia's Senior Analyst for Mobile and Wireless Solutions.

Prepaid users will continue to drive the mobile market. However, their momentum will slow down as third-generation, hitherto offered as postpaid-only products, takes off and carriers' emphasis on profitability – rather than on subscriber market share – intensifies, added Mr Chaisatien.

IDC projects that the arrival of nation-wide 3G infrastructure and services in late 2005, most likely through carrier network sharing, will cause the 3G user base to skyrocket from just under 300,000 this year to 3.55 million in 2008.

The next generation of wireless technology, when all wireless standards can interoperate with one another, will allow users to experience Always Best Connected mobile computing. However IDC predicts that this will not come to fruition until the end of the decade.

This study Upwardly Mobile: Australian Cellular 2004-2008 Forecast and Analysis. provides IDC's updated five-year forecast of the Australian cellular market, a review of major market developments, and the key performance indicators of Australia's four primary cellular operators. It also offers an analysis of future trends, wireless technology dynamics, and service provider strategies driving the wireless sector in Australia.

Also See: prepaid cellular phones .

About The Author:

Alan Delange is a successful author and regular contributor to http://www.1st-in-cell-phones.com.  A source for info and tips for the cellular phone industry featuring articles, comparisons and reviews of cellular phones and service plans.